Although the early primaries are still months away, if the opinion polls are to be believed, the Republican contest seems to have decisively narrowed the field of possible victors. There is a consistency to the polls that cannot be ignored and many of the original 17 contestants must be seeing the writing on the wall.
The departure of Perry will surely soon be followed by Graham and those others whose pathetic poll numbers will eliminate them from the next TV debate. Paul, Huckabee, Walker, Rubio and Fiorina must each be hoping that a good debate performance will re-ignite poll numbers and rich backers. It is too late now for anyone to identify with a game-changing issue.
With the exception of Cruz, they have all nailed their colors to the anti-Trump mast. By doing so they have deliberately or unwittingly become identified with a soft-on-immigration stance which is surely near-catastrophic at a time when mass Muslim immigration is roiling Europe and about to become an issue here in the USA.
Although the anti-Trump mantle initially lay on Jeb Bush’s shoulders, his lack-luster campaign style, so effectively lampooned by Trump, has had a disastrous effect on his polling numbers. Despite his war-chest and initial name-recognition, Bush is now struggling to stay abreast of Rubio, Fiorina and Walker. His instinct may be to drop out if the next debate leaves him struggling in the polls, but he is probably trapped into continuing by family pride and the expectations of those who filled the war chest.
The surprise of the Republican campaign -apart from The Donald- is Carson, and although some of his appeal may be his gentility in the first debate, and his color, we can speculate that he is taking support from those who had hopes for Bush. There must be a sizeable number of Republicans in farming and business who rely on illegal Latino labor. They will not go to Trump. There are also Republicans who see themselves as socially respectable and who consider Trump, his marriages, his business projects and his style to be distasteful. Some of these are snobs and some just have old-fashioned standards. Together they ensure that Trump’s poll figures will have a ceiling among Republicans and if any or all of Fiorina, Huckabee, Rubio and Paul drop out, their support will likely go to Carson. The support for Cruz and Walker will likely go to Trump.
It seems highly possible that the race will narrow down to Trump v Carson, unless Bush hangs in to split the Carson support and the elite‘s financing. Trump may struggle to get more than 45% of the Republican vote in the primaries but his strength may be his appeal to independents and workers of all races in 2016.
According to the latest YouGov/CBS News Battleground poll Trump and Carson are neck and neck in Iowa. This is music to the ears of all who want open borders. In South Carolina Trump is on 36% to Carson’s 21%. In New Hampshire Trump is on 40% and Carson next on 12%. This result may be affected by support for Kasich who has been swamping the MSM with adverts.
South Carolina Poll
- ———————————— Donald Trump 36%
- ——————— Ben Carson 21%
- —— Ted Cruz 6%
- —– Lindsey Graham 5%
- —– Jeb Bush 5%
New Hampshire Poll
- —————————————- Donald Trump 40%
- ———— Ben Carson 12%
- ——— John Kasich 9%
- ——– Carly Fiorina 8%
When Trump briefly visited Iowa at the weekend he clearly outshone his competitors when among the people. One Leftist opponent among the crowd of enthusiasts (and seemingly not assaulted in contrast to the violence that a conservative would receive at a Leftist gathering) held up a banner with “Take your Hate out of our State”.
No rational person could find ‘hate’ in anything Trump has said so far. Drawing attention to rapists and criminals is not ‘hate’. Yet ‘hate’ is another word that the Left has commandeered and is used as a smear word even more than ‘bigoted’, ‘extremist’ and ‘Far Right’. We Conservatives and Nationalists need to reclaim these words, along with ‘gay’ ‘inclusive’ and ‘equality’. Always use the words ‘homosexual’ and ‘pervert’. Always describe Nancy Pelosi as a ’Hate-Monger’. Demand ’equality’ and ’inclusiveness’ in the workplace for Christians! Always pre-fix Hillary Clinton and Obama with ’Far Left’.
Global Warming Watch
Here in middle California we have had several consecutive days of triple-digit weather but remember that September is our hottest month and a bad one for wild-fires. The increase in wild-fires has much to do with population increase and population mobility for almost all our fires are started by careless or vengeful humans. The MSM loses no opportunity to refer to California’s 5-year drought. In fact every one of the past 5 years has seen significant winter rainfall. The water shortages are due to population increase, massive building of houses, malls and offices and no increase in water provision. This is a beautiful State populated and governed by perverts, fantasists, hypocrites, get-rich-quick charlatans and Far Left ideologues.