Theresa May Gambles on Winning

When British Prime Minister Theresa May recently called a ‘snap’ general election, informed opinion was that she was looking to strengthen Britain’s hand in the approaching Brexit negotiations with the EU. For the benefit of non-UK website visitors, a British Prime Minister has the power to call a general election at any time within the statutory 5 years’ limit of a government’s life. Assuming that a Prime minister and his/her majority Party in the House of Commons remain unified and survive any and all ‘votes of confidence’, a PM and governing Party can rule for 5 years from the date of taking office.

The PM’s solely-possessed power to call an election at any time is a formidable one, for it enables a PM to pick a time when prospects look good for re-election. It also enables a PM to threaten dissident members of the ruling Party when things are going badly for the Party. They will not want to face their constituents and risk losing the seat during a time of the Party’s unpopularity.

In this instance, May has called an early election, for she could continue to govern for several years before her 5 years is up. At the moment, her Conservative Party has 330 seats out of a total of 650 seats, an overall majority of 10. Other Parties in the House of Commons are the Labour Party opposition with 229 seats, the Scottish Nationalists with 54, the Liberal Democrats with a paltry 9 seats, the Welsh Nationalists with 3 seats and from Northern Ireland (Ulster) 11 Unionists and 7 Sinn Fein (Irish Nationalists).

Only the Conservative, Labour and LibDems fight a general election nationally, since the Scottish Nationalists only contest Scottish seats, the Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) only contest Wales’ 40 seats and the two Ulster parties only contest Ulster seats. Ulster’s Unionists are closely tied to the Conservative Party, so May’s working majority is nearer 30.

Other significant Parties that will contest some seats are the Greens, the UKIP and the BNP. The only truly nationalist parties are Sinn Fein (for a united Ireland), and the BNP (British National Party), which is restricted in its campaigns by violent official and Red semi-official persecution. The Scots Nats and Plaid Cymru are really Socialist Parties rival to Labour. The LibDem Party is the Party of extreme Globalism and revolutionary sexual morality.

Given that the Labour Party (the official opposition) is relatively small in Parliament and torn apart by internal strife, it can be seen that, on the surface, May had no need to risk calling an election. Part of the explanation is the Brexit vote which took place last year, only one year after the General Election of 2015 which gave David Cameron and his Conservative Party an overall 10 seat majority. Cameron – a Globalist, social modernist and EU believer –  called the Brexit vote, calculating that the voters would reject separation from Europe.

To his credit, he treated the Brexit vote as a vote of ‘no confidence’ and resigned the Party leadership and Office of Prime Minister. May was elected replacement Party leader and Prime Minister by a majority of the Conservative MP’s. Under the UK’s constitution, no General Election was necessary to replace one PM with another.

The Conservative Party is not a Nationalist Party, but like America’s Republican Party, it has a Nationalist leaning, especially among its rank-and-file. Like the Republican Party, its higher ranks look to Big Business for finance.

Theresa May was not at all Nationalist-leaning, but a Party professional, so her resolute pursuit of Brexit is surprising. But Party professionals rarely have too much principle and many nurse great ambitions. We suggest that May is a skillful opportunist who saw her opportunity in the Brexit vote and Cameron’s misjudgment. She may see herself as the new Margaret Thatcher, donning some Nationalist clothing, and enjoying a long period as Prime Minister.

With the Labour Party in disarray (led by the UK’s version of Bernie Sanders); the other Parties greatly divided among each other; and the opinion polls looking good for the Conservative Party, May has an opportunity to decisively win a General Election as Party leader and Prime Minister, and remain in Office for the next 4 plus years.

Whilst a decisive victory at the polls might strengthen her hand a little in the Brexit negotiations, I cannot see it having much impact on the EU leadership. It will however greatly strengthen her hand in Parliament and in the Conservative Party. This is her calculation based on ambition, and the Nationalist stance she will adopt is based solely on opportunism. Nevertheless, opportunism may be pushing her in the direction of Britain’s best interests.

The opposition parties are scrambling to gear up for an election that has caught them off guard. May and her Party are likely to win with a bigger Parliamentary majority and all publicly committed to Brexit.

UKIP, a disorganized Party lacking an agenda beyond exit from the EU, is unlikely to gain traction, but who knows once the campaign gets into full swing? The BNP -the only true Nationalist Party and possessing a small but battle-hardened hard core membership – is led by a good man but one lacking charisma and communication skills. Its only way forward is by fighting local council seats at another time. It has no money and is beset by laws that criminalize speech on race, immigration and traditional morals.

Trump and May will find some common ground in the year ahead, but the Broad Right in the USA should not mistake either the Conservative Party or UKIP for Parties of the Right.

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