It is often said that ‘hindsight is a wonderful thing’. The phrase is usually said with more than a touch of irony and understandably so. When attempting to see into the future, even a day ahead, it is pretty damned difficult to be confident about a prediction.  This is true about the stock market, house prices, currency rates, horse races and political outcomes. I am deliberately writing this before today’s votes in Nevada and South Carolina have been completed because I want to test my brain and knowledge and instincts and see how right or wrong I am getting the political course of events.

So far, I haven’t done badly in the US primaries. My instinct told me that John McCain would do well and I was right (See archive 9th September). In South Carolina he is running neck and neck with Huckabee and will probably come a close second. I never foresaw Huckabee’s rise to fame and popularity, being unaware that he was going to appeal to Evangelicals. I think Romney will win the Republican vote in Nevada because it is a State with quite a lot of Mormons. I always thought that Giuliani would have problems in Republican-leaning States because his personal history is so distasteful to those who believe that a President should be a moral example and represent an image of decency to the world. Since only Republicans care about this and the Democrat Party is an agency of the degenerate Media Class, it seemed likely that Rudi could only do well in those States that elect Democrats. This is clearly a disadvantage in the Primaries for a Republican. I hope Fred Thompson (the only Republican candidate who combines social and economic conservatism with a strong record on defense against the terrorists) does well in South Carolina and Nevada, but it is hard to see him overcoming the handicap that his initial strategy has saddled him with. Too little, too late might be his epitaph! I hope not!

The Media’s reporters and commentators would have us all believe that the outcomes so far are disastrous for the Republicans but positive for the Democrats. Well, they would, wouldn’t they! In fact, the results so far are more troubling for the Media Class and their Party than anyone could have predicted. The Media Class intended that the primaries would be a triumphant parade for Mr. and Mrs. Clinton and they spare no effort in presenting Hillary’s every problem as a triumph. The present scenario of a Black man posing a real threat to her coronation must be a nightmare in the Nation’s newsrooms, in the salons of Beverly Hills and in the comfortable offices where the Soros employees plot the moral collapse of the US. Who could have foreseen that Obama would rise up on the visceral revulsion that many Leftists feel for the Clintons. This revulsion must be the emotion that inspired Christopher Hitchens to write his excellent article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (The Perils of Identity Politics). He has never written better and I quote from his final paragraph. “And I shall not be voting for Mrs. Clinton, who has the gall to inform me after a career of overweening entitlement that there is ‘a double standard’ at work for women in politics; and I assure you now that this decision of mine has only to do with the content of her character”. No conservative could have put it better!

Obama cannot win! That is my prediction! He will probably score a stunning victory in South Carolina and it will make no difference to his long-term chances for the Media will go into overdrive to assert that South Carolina is irrelevant because Blacks have a large presence in its Democrat party. I doubt he will win in Nevada where Harry Reid’s son heads the Clinton campaign and Harry runs the Party. They will do whatever it takes to negate the influence of the Casino workers’ union and its Latino workers. Even if Obama narrowly wins Nevada, we will be told by all the Media experts that Nevada has few delegates to the Convention. Of course, if the Clintons win in Nevada we will be told that it has given Hillary momentum.

Behind all this is a real problem for the Media Class and for Mrs. Clinton when she gets to November, for the tactics necessary to destroy Obama will reveal the elite’s disdain for African Americans. Some Blacks, especially those who have privileged positions in the Democrat Party and benefit from Blacks remaining as an underclass, will stick with their masters but perhaps many others will desert the Democrat Party, at least whilst the Clintons are its face. The Nevada dirty tricks may also alienate Latinos. As Obama is increasingly forced to direct his appeal to minorities in order to circumvent the Party machine and parry the Media negativity, so he opens fissures in the November Democrat rainbow alliance. I seriously believe that Obama will put himself in danger, for a negative Media campaign against him will encourage those crazy Leftists (and perhaps one or two White Supremacists) who crave fame and achieve it by assassinating a popular figure. His campaign style, which entails moving amongst the people and generating spontaneous excitement, is tailor-made for an assassin. This is not a prediction, but elections that are close and fought with bare knuckles do have a history of provoking violence. Past US elections have done so and from around the world we currently have Kenya, Pakistan and other places conveying election violence on to our TV screens.

Last night the frost was so thick here in central California that at 8.30 this morning when I pulled the drapes back I thought it had snowed overnight. Just a global warming thought!

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