Anyone who thinks they can predict the future, whether it be the American economy, interest rates, the housing market, the price of oil, the weather, their own health or the Republican Primary winner, is a fool. Never has the future been more unpredictable.
Examining the past however, is not a waste of time, for if nothing else it offers an opportunity to be reminded that all of life is unpredictable. On this website we say ‘Thank God’ that what seemed predictable early in 2015, proved not to be so, especially in politics.
When the primary season approached it seemed that Jeb Bush was unstoppable. Name recognition, the support of the Republican establishment, Big Business money in buckets, family connections, a National network of activists, a Media-conferred reputation as a Florida Governor who not only had governed successfully, but ‘reached out’ to Democrats, an education reformer and a Republican with excellent Latino credentials were all considered to make him a shoo-in for the Republication nomination.
Very tall, a good head of hair, soft-spoken, a Mexican wife, a patrician air, ready with a folder-full of detailed policies, a courageous exponent of ‘a pathway to citizenship’, a civilized belief in open borders and free trade – in short, a man of the new century yet also a man of the past. He would be the epitome of moderation and sure to win the moderate vote.
Expected to be the easily-dismissed rival was Ted Cruz, representative of the marginalized Evangelicals, and long daubed a ‘fire-brand’ by the Republican Congressional leadership, the Far Left MSM, and the WSJ. It was expected that Marco Rubio would toss his hat into the ring but only to stake a future claim. The Republican establishment celebrated the rich field of Governors and Congressmen as evidence of the talent that the Party possessed but Jeb Bush was expected to cruise to victory on a ‘moderate’ platform dressed up as radical and thoughtful.
When Donald Trump announced his candidacy, everyone, including this writer, assumed that he was having fun, just being Trump the showman, and a sprinter among marathon runners. When he said he would close the border with Mexico and that too many of those crossing it illegally were rapists and murderers, the MSM, whose agenda is open borders and internationalism, salivated and in unison declared that Trump had just outraged the whole Nation. Many Republican rivals, spotting an opportunity to please Big Business benefactors and put themselves on the right side of the MSM joined in condemnation, no doubt confident that in doing so they would be able to bask in self-righteousness and full campaign coffers. Everyone, including this writer, expected Trump to either issue a groveling apology or attempt to walk back a rash and careless statement. Some, this writer for one, felt that what Trump said was true but could not remember when a public figure stood up to the MSM.
Not surprisingly, the MSM went first to Jeb Bush for a Republican denunciation of Trump, and he duly obliged. Of all the Republican contestants he was the one who was most ‘forward-looking’ on the path to citizenship and he was considered to be the thoroughbred in the race. Most of the other candidates scrambled to join Bush in hammering nails into the Trump coffin.
Then the game-changer occurred! Trump not only did not grovel to the MSM, but doubled down. And he was lucky, for in San Francisco an illegal Mexican immigrant randomly shot dead a young woman on the street. Trump then revealed his astuteness and determination by citing this sad event as evidence that he was right about borders and Mexican criminals. At that point, a lot of Americans, sick of Republican wimps, toadies, opportunists and Rinos, and sick of the MSM’s domination of politicians, made Donald Trump their standard-bearer.
Since then The Donald has broken every rule in the political forecasting book. His public meetings have become mass rallies all across the Nation and he has in a haphazard way turned the 2016 election campaign into himself versus the rest, Nationalism versus internationalism, the little man versus Big Business, citizens versus invaders, truth versus political correctness, and commonsense versus lying propaganda.
On this website we wouldn’t dare to predict where the Republican contest will go, but looking back we can say with certainty that all those – and especially Jeb Bush – who galloped to the MSM to denounce Trump, seriously misjudged the public mood. 2015 has been Donald Trump’s year.